In Davis' own words at SI.com, on why "experts" like himself are wrong so often:

The answer is obvious but seldom spoken: We're guessing, just like you.

Ahhhh. Then maybe you should be paid as much as we are. Or maybe there needs to be a disclaimer whenever one of you "experts" starts spewing off at the mouth: "Warning - I really don't know more than you, I'm just guessing."

Davis, to his credit, candidly walks us through all of the picks he's gotten wrong. He originally had Syracuse and Wake Forest in the Final Four, and then after the first weekend of the tourney, he picked Arizona and Duke to emerge from their respective regions. Perhaps the biggest indictment of his lack of ability to pick winners is that his picks were worse, over the season, than those of randomly selected readers.